WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending September 12, 2015)
Sweat It Out! Warmest Week 2 of September Since 1983 in the U.S. Limited Fall Purchasing. A Wet Week in North America Hampered Store Traffic.
Weekend Review: A surge of cool air provided an early fall feel for most eastern regions. Coolest conditions were felt in the Midwest where morning temperatures fell into the 40s, with 30s in parts of Canada and the U.S. Northern Tier. Daytime highs were comfortable in the 60s and 70s. This cooldown made it to the East Coast on Sunday, but not before an inclement Saturday brought periods of heavy rain. New England and eastern Canadian provinces had a wet Sunday. The western states were warmer with highs in the 80s and 90s, while scattered showers fell in interior California and nearby mountain areas, it was dry for most.
The Kids Are Back to School, but Mother Nature Stayed on Summer Vacation. It was a warm week across the U.S. as all regions trended warmer than LY, driving demand for late summer consumables. In particular, the Pacific region had its warmest 2nd week of September in over 55 years. The Mid-Atlantic region was warmest since 1983 and the South Atlantic region was warmest since 1991. San Diego and Las Vegas had their warmest week 2 of September in over 55 years and LA was warmest since 1984. In the East, NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Richmond were all warmest since 1983, limiting demand for fall categories.
Blame It On The Rain. Nationally, rainfall was well above normal, although similar to LY. The West North Central region had its wettest 2nd week of September since 2008, and the Pacific region was wettest since 2010. Cleveland had its wettest 2nd week of September in over 55 years and St. Louis was wettest since 1984. Dry spots were in the Mountain region which had its least rainfall for week 2 of September since 2009. Salt Lake City was driest since 2009, Denver since 2010.
Falling Down. Despite the late-week cool down, fall conditions were hard to find as temperatures in many markets were warmer than LY. Atlanta, Houston, and New Orleans were the exceptions, having their coolest week 2 of September since 2012, which provided opportunities for fall businesses.
Saying Grace. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storms Grace and Henri dissipated without impacting the U.S. mainland. In the Pacific basin, Hurricane Linda quickly fell apart, although moisture from the storm was pulled into portions of California.
Last week last year, many markets saw record low temperatures and even some localized snowfall. The U.S. was cooler and wetter than normal. Canada had its coolest week 2 of September since 1986 with some snowfall in the West and above normal rain.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending September 12, 2015)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending September 12, 2015)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.
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