WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending September 10, 2016)
Fall Demand Continued to Kick Off in the West While Record Heat Kept Seasonal Categories on the Defensive in the East and Canada. A Mostly Dry Week, but Rain Came into Play.
Weekend Review: Much of the U.S. experienced seasonal temperatures with comfortable highs in the 70s and 80s, while eastern states dealt with extreme heat and humidity, pushing heat index readings above 100°F on Saturday. A cold front brought showers and severe weather across the Great Lakes on Saturday and into New England on Sunday. The West trended cooler and remained dry, supporting retail traffic. In Canada, eastern provinces held on to above normal warmth much of the weekend depressing seasonal demand; the West and Prairies were cooler than normal.
Fall Touchdown in the West. Nationally, the 2nd week of September was slightly cooler than LY, but was much warmer than normal. Major markets in the West drove the cooler than LY trend as the Pacific region had its coolest 2nd week of September since 2010. Seattle, Portland, Sacramento, San Diego, Riverside, and Salt Lake City all had their coolest week 2 of September since 2010 creating favorable conditions for fall product demand.
The East was Penalized for Holding Summer Heat. Warmth was focused in the eastern half of the U.S. The East South Central region had its warmest 2nd week of September in over 55 years. The Mid-Atlantic and East North Central regions were warmest since 1961, and the South Atlantic region was warmest since 1983. Philadelphia and Cleveland had their warmest 2nd week of September in over 55+ years. Atlanta and Cincinnati were warmest since 1961, Pittsburgh since 1971, Detroit since 1978, NYC, Chicago, and Baltimore since 1983. Fall categories were put on hold while demand spiked for summer consumables.
Limited Rain Delays. Nationally, rainfall for September week 2 was the least since 2012. The West South Central region was driest since 2011. San Antonio was driest since 2011. Boston and NYC were driest since 2012. Conversely, the West North Central and East North Central regions were wettest since 2008. Indianapolis was wettest since 1989, Minneapolis since 1999. The Pacific region was wettest since 2010, driven by remnants of Hurricane Newton which impacted the Desert Southwest.
Canadian Bakin’ is Back. Nationally, Canada had its warmest 2nd week of September in over 55 years driven by eastern markets. Toronto had its warmest 2nd week of September in over 55 years, Windsor since 1983, and Halifax since 1999 supporting demand for summer clearance items. Conversely, Vancouver was coolest since 2012. Canada was drier than LY, but wetter than normal. Ottawa and Halifax were both driest since 2009. Quebec City was wettest since 1986, Toronto since 2008.
For reference, last year , the U.S. had its warmest 2nd week of September since 1983, with rainfall well above normal. Canada was warmest since 1999. Rainfall was above normal and the most for the week since 2011.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending September 10, 2016)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending September 10, 2016)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.