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 WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending June 18, 2016)

No Comeback Here! The Coasts Continued to Keep it Cool While Interior Regions Heated Up. Fathers Were Treated to Warm and Dry Conditions, Supporting Outdoor Celebrations.

Weekend Review: Above normal warmth stretched across the North Central region, Great Lakes, and Rockies, with a record-setting heat wave in the Southwest. Cooler than normal and LY temperatures were located in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast. The Gulf Coast, Northern Plains, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest experienced wetter than normal conditions over the weekend. Father’s Day in the U.S. was cooler than LY but warmer vs. normal, with the least rainfall in 55+ years. LA, San Diego, Denver, and Phoenix were warmest in over 55 years. Father’s Day in Canada was warmest since 2006 and driest since 2011.

Different Coasts, Same Story. Nationally, the 3rd week of June was cooler than LY, but warmer than normal. The Pacific region had its coolest June week 3 since 2010. Sacramento was coolest since 1995, Portland, OR and Phoenix since 2010, Seattle since 2011, and Los Angeles since 2012. Cooler temperatures persisted in the Mid-Atlantic region which had its coolest week since 2011. Richmond was coolest since 2006, Baltimore and Philadelphia since 2009, limiting year-over-year seasonal demand.

Middle was Best. Warmer comparisons were felt across the central U.S. The West North Central region had its warmest June week 3 since 1987 and the West South Central region since 2011. St. Louis trended warmest in over 55 years. Kansas City was warmest since 1994, Little Rock and Memphis since 2010, and Oklahoma City, Houston, Dallas, and New Orleans since 2011. While cooler than last year, the East South Central region experienced one of its top 3 warmest third weeks of June in over 55 years.

Drier Than LY. Compared to last year’s record rainfall, drier conditions this year promoted outdoor activities around the country. The Mid-Atlantic region was driest since 2012. Conversely, the East South Central was wettest since 2013.

A Bit Breezy. It was an active week with over 1,400 severe weather reports, including over 1,100 high wind reports spanning from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region and into the Southeast late week.

Canada Remains Cool. Canada had its coolest June week 3 since 2000. Halifax was coolest in over 55 years and Vancouver was coolest since 1981. Conversely, Winnipeg was warmest since 2009. Nationally, rainfall was above last year and normal, although many major markets trended drier. Ottawa was driest since 2003, Toronto since 2006, and Calgary since 2008.

For reference, last year the U.S. had its warmest 3rd week of June since 2012 and was wettest in 55+ years. Tropical Storm Bill brought flooding to east Texas and Oklahoma. Father’s Day in the U.S. was the warmest in over 55 years and wettest since 2011. Canada was coolest since 2011 with above normal rainfall. Father’s Day in Canada was warmer than normal and the wettest since 2007.

Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending June 18, 2016)

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WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending June 18, 2016)

Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”).  It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection.  It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.)  WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service. 

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