Trick or Treat? November arrives with an abrupt weather change and opportunities for seasonal categories

As Halloween arrives, Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is expected to surge for cold-weather categories across much of the country.  To many, the plunging temperatures may seem like a cruel trick, but for retailers, the change may be a welcomed treat.  Below are some examples of the weather-based demand swing as the abnormally warm temperatures of this week pivot to much colder conditions next week.

After basking in the warmth of temperatures in the 70s and 80s this week, we are gearing up for an abrupt shift – in weather and consumer demand trends – as the calendar turns to November. A potent cold front is set to sweep across the United States, commencing in the Northwest and progressing to the East Coast by early next week. Anticipate a substantial drop in temperatures, ranging from 15 to 20 degrees below the norm. Many areas are poised to experience their inaugural freeze of the season. Highs for the upcoming week will hover in the 40s and 50s (30s for North Central locations), signifying a noteworthy departure from the recent warmth. Demand for Fall/Winter seasonal products will spike in most markets east of the Rockies, as highlighted in the examples above.

Preceding the arrival of the cold air, an expansive winter weather system is forecasted to blanket parts of the Rockies and Northern and Central Plains with snow. Simultaneously, heavy rain is likely to sweep from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region, raising concerns about potential flooding.