Expect consumer demand volatility over the first half of October. Planalytics is projecting large swings in consumer purchasing activity over the first two weeks of October due to weather.
Let’s look at the Philadelphia markets as an example. Weather-Driven Demand or WDD (a measure of how much changes in the weather either increase or decrease demand) will shift significantly between this week and next week for the following categories:
Similar demand pivots will be seen in many central and eastern markets as the mercury readings drop dramatically by this weekend. Conversely, locations in southern California and the desert southwest can expect demand for fall/winter seasonal categories to decrease as temperatures warm up.
The central and eastern regions will move from conditions that are 10-25 degrees above the seasonal norm (some locations will reach record highs in the 80s and 90s) to a notable drop of 20-30 degrees by the weekend. In some western areas, an opposite shift is beginning now, as the cooler trend gives way to temperatures that will be 5-15 degrees above normal through next week.
The temperature swings continue next week (ending 10/14) in the eastern half of the U.S. where a return to unseasonable warmth is expected as we approach mid-October.
Daily Temperatures vs. Normal
Unusual warmth in central and northeast regions flips to much cooler by Saturday, 10/7. Late next week (10/13) much warmer than normal temperatures stretch across most of the U.S.