Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day Weekend Outlook

Roses Are Red, Skies Are Gray – Wild Weather Ahead for Valentine’s Day

Nationwide Weather Swings to Boost Retail Demand in Key Regions

Cupid isn’t the only one making plans—Mother Nature has some surprises in store that will shape consumer spending this Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day weekend. From winter storms encouraging online shopping to warm temperatures boosting outdoor activities, retailers can optimize their strategies by aligning with the weather forecast.

According to the National Retail Federation, consumers are expected to spend a record $25.9 billion on Valentine’s Day this year, with a focus on gifts, dining, and experiences. This means retailers have a major opportunity to capitalize on holiday-driven demand while adapting to shifting weather trends.

Leading up to the holiday weekend (2/8-2/13), the West, Midwest, and Northeast will see rounds of snow and ice, driving demand for cozy gifts, warm beverages, and a surge in online shopping. Retailers should anticipate potential shipping delays and consider early promotions on Valentine’s essentials to keep customers engaged. Meanwhile, in the South, record-breaking highs in the 80s will drive demand for warm-weather fashion, patio dining, and refreshing treats. Consumers in these areas will be looking for ways to enjoy the unexpected heat, making early spring merchandise a smart focus for retailers.

On Valentine’s Day, colder temperatures will dominate the North and West, while the South remains warm, driving a mix of seasonal shopping trends. As the weekend progresses, the weather pattern will shift. By Presidents Day, a fresh surge of cold air will move into the Eastern half of the U.S., likely increasing demand for indoor experiences, warm beverages, and cozy apparel. Additionally, there is potential for another winter storm to impact the Midwest and Northeast, which could further drive demand for winter essentials and disrupt travel plans. Meanwhile, interior parts of the West will experience a warm-up, potentially boosting foot traffic for outdoor activities and early spring shopping. 

For reference, last year Valentine’s Day (2/14/24) in the U.S. was coldest and driest with the least snow since 2022. Presidents’ Day (2/19/24) was coldest since 2021and wettest since 2022 but with very little snow.          

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