Mother’s Day Outlook from Planalytics

Mother Nature Keeps Things Cool for Mom into Mother’s Day Week
Cooler temperatures to dampen demand for most with the Northwest having favorable conditions

It has been a volatile spring to date, with demand for seasonal categories fluctuating across North America. Mother Nature will continue to affect purchasing as loved ones prepare to celebrate Mom this Mother’s Day, Sunday, May 10th.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 84% of U.S. adults are expected to participate in the holiday, with spending expected to reach a record $38 billion this year. Popular gift categories include flowers, dining, apparel, jewelry, and gift cards. As always, weather conditions in the days leading up to the holiday will play a critical role in shaping both timing and category demand.

The lead-up to Mother’s Day will be marked by cooler than normal temperatures across most of the U.S., with only brief and limited pockets of milder weather. Early-week rain in the West is expected to move into the central and eastern U.S. by midweek, likely suppressing foot traffic and delaying in-store purchases or shifting purchases online. These conditions point to softer early demand for weather-sensitive categories, including Spring apparel.

Over Mother’s Day weekend (5/8-5/10), the advancing cold front will reinforce cooler than normal conditions for most of the nation. As a result, these conditions may continue to temper outdoor activity and limit a full demand rebound, leading to a more subdued finish to the holiday period in those areas. Conversely, pockets of the interior West and South Central regions will experience warmer conditions, providing opportunities for seasonal businesses.

Similar to the U.S., the central and eastern provinces in Canada will also experience colder temperatures throughout Mom’s special week and weekend. Only pockets of British Columbia and Alberta will see warmer temperatures. Most precipitation across Canada will be focused over the Canadian Maritimes, but a few showers across the Prairies will also be possible over the weekend.

For reference, last year Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) in the U.S was the coldest and driest since 2022. The holiday in Canada was the coldest since 2022 and the wettest since 2021.

Whether it’s adjusting inventory, refining promotions, or targeting key markets, now is the time to get ahead. If you’d like deeper insights on how to position your business for these changes, we’re here to help. Contact Planalytics to further discuss specific weather impact insights for your business.