Arctic Outbreak & Major Winter Storm: Widespread Disruptions Expected Across Two-Thirds of the U.S.

Across the eastern two-thirds of the nation, frigid temperatures will drive a drop in commercial activity beginning this weekend, and those in the Southern and Eastern U.S. are also expected to see significant ice and snow from a major winter storm. Wintry weather as far south as the Gulf Coast will shift regional demand toward immediate preparedness and winter-essential categories.

Planalytics’ Weather-Driven Demand impacts for this week and next week, compared to normal:

Businesses can expect a sharp “pull-forward” of demand in the days leading up to the storm, followed by a temporary suppression of foot traffic as hazardous conditions peak over the weekend.

Planalytics generates WeatherSpend metrics in partnership with Facteus, utilizing credit and debit card transaction data to isolate the impact of weather on spending for retail sectors and specific businesses. Callouts for the wintry weather:

• Restaurant visits will drop up to -30% below normal in the South Central and Mid-Atlantic regions between Saturday and Monday.
• Gas and Convenience Stores in the South Central will benefit from a boost in pre-storm traffic, followed by weather-impacted sales that drop 15% to 30% below normal over the weekend into early next week.
• Sales in the Apparel sector will be 10% to 30% below normal in the Southeast over the weekend into next week.
• Stores specializing in Outdoor Apparel will see transactions rise up to 50% above normal this week and next week in the Great Lakes region.

This upcoming “dual-threat” storm of ice and arctic cold will trigger distinct regional consumer shifts:

• Southern Tier: Expect early panic-buying (Wed–Thu) for groceries and plumbing supplies, as well as spikes in demand for ice melt, batteries, and portable power. Store traffic will crater on Friday and Saturday.
• Mid-Atlantic/Northeast: Extreme wind chills and the threat of snow will drive shoppers online. Expect high demand for snow essentials, delivery, and “stay-at-home” categories.
• Midwest/Great Lakes: Sub-zero temperatures will severely curtail discretionary foot traffic. Sales will focus on indoor essentials including comfort food, heaters, and home entertainment.

While the immediate focus for shoppers will be on safety and survival essentials, the prolonged cold following the storm is likely to sustain demand for winter seasonal goods well into the following week.

Please reach out to the Planalytics Success Team with any questions or to discuss specific impacts and strategies for your business.