Black Friday Recap 2025

Brisk Business! A Cold Holiday Weekend Had Shoppers Stuffing Their Baskets With Seasonal Goods

Drier than Normal Conditions Supported Foot Traffic; ‘Fowl’ Weather Focused in Interior Regions

The Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend (November 27 – November 30) was colder than normal for most of the US, helping lift demand for seasonal categories. For many, frigid conditions over the weekend were a stark contrast to warmer-than-normal conditions felt earlier in the week. These roller-coaster temperatures helped put consumers in a holiday mindset and increased demand for cold-weather categories and need-based purchases over the weekend.

Dry conditions for most large population centers- particularly on Black Friday – supported foot traffic into shopping centers, restaurants, and entertainment destinations.

Cold Turkey for Most; While the West Roasted

Eastern regions of the US experienced the colder deviations to normal. Below-normal temperatures over the holiday weekend were experienced in St. Louis (-14˚F), Cincinnati and Indianapolis (-13˚F), Atlanta and Cleveland (-12˚F), and Chicago, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, and Raleigh (-11˚F).  Markets where temperatures trended below normal by 5˚F to 10˚F include New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, Dallas, Buffalo, Orlando, Nashville, Richmond, and Oklahoma City.

Western markets trended warmer than typical for Black Friday weekend, including Salt Lake City (+6˚F), Las Vegas, and Albuquerque (+5˚F). Other large population centers in the West, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Seattle, experienced temperatures near or slightly above normal for the weekend.

Overall, while conditions averaged warmer than last year’s record cold, the below-normal temperatures brought about a stark shift from earlier in the week, helping to lift demand for seasonal categories and put cold-weather items into customer shopping carts.

Dry Turkey for Most, ‘Fowl’ Weather Focused in Interior Markets

Total precipitation for the weekend was below normal as many major markets dried out following heavy rain in the days leading up to the holiday. Thanksgiving and Black Friday were drier than normal. Small Business Saturday was dry along the coasts, while interior regions experienced rain and snow. North Central region markets, including Chicago, Detroit, and Des Moines, all had significant snowfall over the weekend. Entering Travel Sunday, precipitation was moving through the Midwest and into Eastern regions, with most large population centers experiencing light rain and some snowfall.

Cold Leftovers to Begin December

Colder-than-normal temperatures will continue into Cyber Monday (December 1, 2025) and persist through the first full week of December. These cold conditions will be accompanied by increased threats of rain, ice, and snowfall. Seasonal businesses such as outerwear, hats & gloves, blankets, and firewood can expect weather-driven demand increases of +5% to +20% above normal levels to start December. Need-based categories such as ice melt, snow shovels, firewood, and winter boots can expect demand increases up to 50% above normal due to the weather. In addition, Planalytics WeatherSpend, powered by Facteus, indicates that wintry conditions will boost e-commerce transactions by 40 basis points, marking the most favorable start to December in over four years.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projected a record 186.9 million shoppers over the holiday weekend, including 130 million on Black Friday alone.  The NRF expects total holiday sales to grow 3.7% to 4.2% over last year, with total holiday spending topping $1 trillion for the first time on record. 

For additional information or questions, please contact Planalytics.