Holiday 2025: What Retailers and Prognosticators Expect

Source: WWD
By David Moin  

Retailers performing well this year should generate low- to midsingle-digit gains for the 2025 holiday season; others could see declines.

Retailers are heading into the heart of the holiday season with a heap of concerns, from consumers cutting back on non-essentials and anxious over the economy, to higher prices from tariffs, inflation and potential stockouts.

Yet many retailers expect to pull through the 2025 holiday season with satisfactory, if modest, gains. Walmart, Amazon, Gap, TJX and Ross Stores have raised guidance for the year, reflecting confidence in the fourth quarter. And other retailers that have been performing well this year — Aritzia, Vuori, Primark, Bloomingdale’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, Costco and Ann Taylor-parent Knitwell should emerge from the 2025 holiday season in decent shape.

Several factors will fuel holiday gains. The S&P 500 index is up 11 percent this year, adding to the nation’s wealth factor. Also, newer channels for shopping, i.e. agentic commerce, are gaining traction, and channels that have around for awhile — like mobile shopping, social media apps such as TikTok, livestreaming, and the resale market — continue to increase in popularity. AI is also making it easier to personalize the shopping experience. So whatever makes shopping faster, easier and more convenient will stimulate purchasing.  . . .

Price Promoting Pivots

. . .   Weatherwise, the holiday outlook is good. Conditions across much of the country should spur traditional holiday gift categories like cold weather accessories and sweaters, and not deter driving to malls, according to a report from Planalytics, which predicts the weather to help retailers plan and manage their inventories and understand consumer shopping patterns.

“The week of Thanksgiving will start warmer than normal for a large part of the country, especially across the Plains and South. As the week progresses, a system will drive colder air into the West and then spread it eastward into the Plains and Midwest by Wednesday into Thursday, creating a more seasonally chilly feel in these regions and strengthening demand for coats, cold-weather accessories, comfort foods, and hot beverages,” said Evan Gold, executive vice president of global partnerships and Alliances at Planalytics. “By Black Friday weekend, many key markets will trend colder than normal. This setup will be favorable for winter-driven categories such as outerwear, boots, hats and gloves, electric heat, and seasonal food and hot beverages as shoppers respond to both promotions and the more wintry feel. We are monitoring the potential for wintry conditions to affect parts of the Plains and Midwest, which could create travel challenges over the holiday weekend. Major coastal Northeast cities will face a lower risk of impactful snow, limiting the potential for widespread disruption even as colder temperatures still support seasonal demand.”

“New York City begins this week in the 50s and 60s and will end the week in the 30s and 40s,” Gold said. “Chicago begins this week in the 40s and 50s and ends in the 20’s and 30s. Atlanta begins in the 60s and 70s and ends in the 40s and 50s, and Los Angeles begins in the 70s and 80s and ends in the 60s. There will be widespread showers early in the week, but clear for most by Thanksgiving Day when it will be mostly dry in large population centers over Black Friday and Small Business Saturday, helping to lift foot traffic into shopping malls, restaurants, and big box stores. Sunday looks to be wet for many which might push shoppers to get an early start on Cyber Monday.”   . . .