Easter Outlook from Planalytics

Some Bunny Ordered a Warm Start, Then Rain for Many for Easter Weekend

Egg-Spect a Scramble in Consumer Trends as Weather Shifts Across Regions

The Easter holiday remains a key driver of early spring retail performance. This year, Easter falls on Sunday, April 5, with U.S. consumers expected to spend a record $24.9 billion, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. As in previous years, candy, food, and gifts remain the most popular planned purchases. Weather conditions during the holiday run-up are expected to create a more variable demand environment this year, with warmer temperatures supporting seasonal activity in many markets even as widespread cloud cover and periods of rain create localized interruptions to trips and foot traffic.

Leading Into Easter Weekend –  March 30 to April 2:

• Warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the East and South should continue to support seasonal demand, including home improvement, lawn and garden, apparel, and other spring-driven categories.
• Cooler conditions will settle into parts of the West and north-central U.S., a sharp reversal from the record-setting March heat that had been boosting early spring activity in many of these markets
• A broad area of cloud cover and unsettled weather is expected to stretch across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and parts of the East, creating a wetter backdrop for the holiday run-up.
• Even in wetter regions, the pattern is not expected to be a complete washout. Breaks in precipitation should still provide opportunities for consumers to get out and shop, although traffic levels may become more uneven depending on localized timing of rain and clouds.
• The Southwest, South-Central, and parts of the Southeast should see fewer weather-related interruptions overall, supporting more consistent store and restaurant traffic.

Easter Weekend – April 3 to April 5:

• Wetter and cloudier conditions are expected to remain in place for many central and eastern markets heading into Easter weekend, which could create more variability in foot traffic and outdoor holiday activity.
• At the same time, not every market or every day will be equally impacted. Shorter dry windows may still allow for solid traffic periods, especially where holiday shopping and dining activity is concentrated close to Easter.
• A cooler trend is expected to expand across parts of the Plains and Rockies, while much of the East remains seasonable to mild overall.
• The West Coast should begin trending drier later in the period, while the Southwest remains one of the more favorable regions for uninterrupted consumer activity.

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