Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day Outlook

Roses Are Red, Skies Are Gray.
Wintry Conditions for Most Leading into Valentine’s Day.

Precipitation will impact holiday spending across regions

Much of the eastern US has experienced several days of below normal, and in many cases below freezing conditions as of late. The bitter cold will continue this weekend, particularly in the Northeast where it will be accompanied by gusty winds, continuing to keep consumers thinking and purchasing winter categories.

As we look forward towards Valentine’s Day, Cupid isn’t the only one making plans. Mother Nature has some surprises in store that will shape consumer spending into the holiday weekend. From winter storms encouraging online shopping to warm temperatures boosting outdoor activities, retailers can optimize their strategies by aligning with the weather outlook.

According to the National Retail Federation, consumers are expected to spend a record $29.1 billion on Valentine’s Day this year, with a focus on gifts, dining, and experiences. This means retailers have an opportunity to capitalize on holiday-driven demand while adapting to shifting weather trends.

Throughout the work week, a couple of weather systems will spread rain, snow, and ice across parts of the U.S, putting winter staples and “stay-in” vibes front and center. Expect shoppers to lean into cozy gifting, warm beverages, and a noticeable bump in online carts as people choose comfort and convenience.

Businesses will want to plan for weather-driven shifts in store traffic, as shoppers will adjust the times and channels where they make holiday related purchases. Temperatures will stay colder than normal, and colder than this time last year, across much of the Eastern U.S. and along the West Coast, while warmer air will favor the central U.S., helping shift demand region by region.

On Valentine’s Day, lighter rain and snow will linger across the eastern U.S., keeping demand high for winter essentials, and steering shoppers toward the “cozy convenience” economy of delivery, pickup, and indoor-first purchases.

By Presidents Day, another system is expected to bring widespread rain and snow across the western U.S. Additionally, some lingering precipitation will still be in the mix for parts of the Northeast, paired with colder temperatures that will keep winter categories in play. Meanwhile, much of the central U.S. will be trending warmer, helping weather weary consumers to think towards spring.

For reference, last year Valentine’s Day (2/14/25) in the U.S. was coldest and driest with the least snow since 2022. Presidents’ Day (2/17/25) was coldest since 2022 and driest since 2021 but snowiest since 2022.