Cold Front to Meet Hot Deals over the Black Friday Weekend

Mother Nature Cooks up a Batch of Precipitation Throughout the Week

It’s almost Turkey Time! Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend represent the official kickoff to the holiday shopping season. According to a recent survey by the National Retail Federation, consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 per person this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items.

The week of Thanksgiving will start warmer than normal for a large part of the country, especially across the Plains and South. As the week progresses, a system will drive colder air into the West and then spread it eastward into the Plains and Midwest by Wednesday into Thursday, creating a more seasonally chilly feel in these regions and strengthening demand for coats, cold-weather accessories, comfort foods, and hot beverages.

Rain will move through the Southern Plains and central and eastern U.S. Sunday through Thursday, which may slow in-store shopping trips but support online activity. Snow will be possible in parts of the Plains, Midwest, and interior Northeast, along with the higher elevations of the West. This will prompt stock-ups on snow and ice products, auto care, and pantry items ahead of holiday travel.

By Black Friday weekend (November 28 to 30), many key markets will trend colder than normal. This setup will be favorable for winter-driven categories such as outerwear, boots, hats and gloves, electric heat, and seasonal food and beverages as shoppers respond to both promotions and the more wintry feel. We are monitoring the potential for wintry conditions to affect parts of the Plains and Midwest, which could create travel challenges over the holiday weekend. Major coastal Northeast cities will face a lower risk of impactful snow, limiting the potential for widespread disruption even as colder temperatures still support seasonal demand.

For reference, last year, Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend were the coldest in over 25 years and the driest since 2017.

Businesses can get ahead of the clear regional shifts in consumer demand and optimize inventories, marketing campaigns, promotions, and operations. Please reach out to Planalytics to discuss specific weather impact insights for your business.