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WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending January 30, 2016)
Meltdown! Mild Temperatures in the East Helped Clear Snow and Supported Store Traffic. Cold Temperatures to LY in the West Drove End of Season Clearance.
Weekend Review: Most locations in North America had temperatures warmer than normal and LY. Strongest warmth was in interior locations. Oklahoma City set a record when temperatures hit 76°F. Below normal and LY conditions were concentrated along the West Coast. Wetter than normal conditions were focused on the West Coast, across the Intermountain West, the Canadian Prairies, and Great Lakes. Dry conditions along the Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic regions aided store traffic.
I’ll Melt With You. Following the epic blizzard of 2016, most major markets in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions experienced a mild and dry week, facilitating significant melting. New York City and Boston each had their warmest end to January in 4 years. Major markets around the Great Lakes also had a mild week, limiting end of season clearance, but providing opportunities to get a jumpstart on spring categories.
All Chilly on the Western Front. Markets in the Central Plains, Rockies, and Southwest had a cold week compared to LY, although many markets were still warmer than normal. San Francisco, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Las Vegas all had their coldest end to January in 3 years, supporting end of season clearance. The exception to the rule was in the Pacific Northwest where Seattle and Portland, OR each had their warmest end to January since 2003.
Turned Off. Snowfall was the least to end January since 1992. Regions which were hardest hit last week saw the snow machine turn off. The Mid-Atlantic region had its least snowfall to end January since 1973; New England since 1983. The East North Central and West North Central regions were least since 2006. Boston, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Chicago, Denver, and Oklahoma City were a few of the major markets that did not record any snowfall for the week. While dry conditions curbed demand for snow removal categories, they supported store traffic and enabled shoppers to get out and replenish consumable items.
Dodging Raindrops. While rainfall was slightly above LY, it was still well below normal. The Mid-Atlantic region had its driest end to January in over 55 years. Wet weather was focused in the Northwest as well as in Florida and the Gulf Coast. Miami, Orlando, and Tampa had their wettest end to January in over 55 years. Seattle was wettest since 2004.
For reference, last year, the U.S was warmer than normal with the least rain since 2001 and below normal snow.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending January 30, 2016)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending January 30, 2016)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.
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