Polar Opposite! Warmest November Since 1999 in the U.S. Comps Last Year’s Coldest Since 1996.
A Wet Month Featured Extreme Weather Including Late Month Snow & Ice. Holiday Weekend Warmest Since 2012.
The warmest November since 1999 in the U.S. kept seasonal demand soft, particularly in the East. Rainfall was the most since 2004, although snowfall was below LY and normal. Canada had its warmest November since 2009. Rainfall was below LY; snowfall lagged behind LY and normal.
Across the U.S., the Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend (November 26 – 29) saw above normal temperatures and was the warmest since 2012. Warmest temperatures were in the South Atlantic and East South Central regions, which had their warmest holiday weekend in over 15 years. The mild conditions to LY and limited precipitation in many major markets benefitted store traffic into malls, outlet centers, mass merchants, and restaurants.
Out West, the Pacific and Mountain regions had their coldest Black Friday weekend since 2010. Denver, Phoenix, and Seattle had their coldest holiday weekend in over 15 years. Los Angeles and San Francisco were coldest since 2010. Cold temperatures in these western markets helped drive need-based purchasing of jackets, sweaters, gloves, hot drinks, blankets, and firewood.
Precipitation was the most for the holiday weekend since 2000, driven by interior regions. The West North Central and West South Central regions had their wettest holiday weekend in over 15 years. Ice, snow, and freezing rain impacted parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri which crippled traffic into stores and restaurants.
Difficult Weather Comps.
In the U.S., 3 out of 4 weeks were warmer than LY. Week 1 was the warmest since 1975, week 2 was the warmest since 2009, and week 3 was the warmest since 2011. Warmth was driven by eastern regions throughout the month. This compares against the coldest November in 18 years in 2014. The year-over-year challenges limited demand for seasonal businesses.
In Canada, all 4 weeks of the month were warmer than LY. Week 1 was the warmest since 2008, week 3 was the warmest since 2009, and weeks 2 and 4 were the warmest since 2011. Mild conditions dominated most major markets, keeping demand soft for fall and winter categories.
In the U.S., 3 out of 4 weeks were wetter than LY. Week 3 was the wettest since 1972.
Severe weather in week 3 featured tornadoes, hail, and high winds in the Plains and Southeast.
Snovember in the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest.
Week 3 featured a major storm which brought snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains before moving eastward and bringing blizzard conditions to Colorado. Denver recorded its snowiest 3rd week of November since 1994. Late week, a separate storm brought significant snow to the Upper Midwest. Chicago recorded 11.2” and Detroit 6”, making this their snowiest week 3 of November in over 55 years. Both snow events caused store traffic and travel disruptions.
During week 4 a snow and ice storm impacted the Rockies, Southern Plains, and Midwest.
“November brought challenging weather comparisons to the extreme cold of last year. Still, the holiday shopping season kicked off with favorable store traffic conditions for most. While the East was warm, demand for seasonal categories was lifted by the cold in western markets,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions had their warmest November in over 55 years. The South Atlantic and East South Central regions were warmest in 30 years.
NYC, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tampa had their warmest November in 55+ years.
Orlando and Miami were warmest since 1986; Boston, Baltimore, and Cleveland since 1994.
The Pacific region had its coldest November since 2011.
Phoenix and Las Vegas were coldest since 2004; LA and Seattle since 2011.
In Canada, Toronto had its warmest November in over 55 years. Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Calgary were warmest since 2009, Montreal since 2011. Vancouver was coldest since 2003.
Precipitation and Snowfall Callouts
The South Atlantic region had its wettest November since 1992; West North Central since 1996.
Charlotte had its wettest November in over 55 years. Atlanta was wettest since 1992, Miami since 1994, St. Louis since 1996, Dallas since 2000, and Chicago since 2003.
Conversely, the Mid-Atlantic region had its driest November since 1998; New England since 2001.
Buffalo was driest since 1978; Boston and Philadelphia since 2007.
Snowfall in the U.S. was 74% less than LY and 92% below normal.
The week 3 storm resulted in Chicago having its most snow for November in over 55 years.
In Canada, Edmonton was driest since 2009 while Quebec City was wettest since 2010.
Snowfall was very limited in Canada; 76% less than LY and 94% below normal.