Tag Archives: weather analytics

Previewing the 2016 Holiday Shopping Season

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We’re only a little over a week away from Black Friday and the official start of the holiday shopping season. Apparel-focused retailers who were hurt by the incredibly warm temperatures last November and December in many parts of the country are eager to know if this holiday season will prove more favorable.

There are many questions retailers might have:

Will the weather drive shopping traffic?

Where will there be weather-related opportunities?

Will it get cold enough to trigger sales for a specific seasonal item?

These are just some of the questions that we will be looking at now and in the upcoming weeks as we enter the prime weeks of the holiday shopping season. Planalytics combines weather data in business and historic sales data to isolate the weather and determine its impacts on sales based on market, sector, and category.

 

What a Difference a Year Makes

 

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Thanksgiving Day was the warmest since 2012 and wettest since 2010. The Black Friday weekend was the warmest since 2012 and the wettest since 2000. Last year, temperatures were well above 70 degrees in the East on Christmas Eve. This was a weather trend seen on the East Coast throughout the holiday shopping season.

This year, Black Friday weekend will feature colder temperatures versus last year in the East, which will support seasonal demand. Warmer temperatures are expected in the West. Retailers will have to identify the areas of opportunity.

Below are weather-driven demand insights for several product categories for November vs. last year:

Soup: -15% WDD IN Seattle

Firewood: -18% WDD in Denver

Long Sleeve Shirts: -5% WDD in Los Angeles

Heaters: +14% WDD in New York

Rainwear: +35% WDD in Miami

Boots: +6% WDD in Montreal

In December, many retailers should see favorable comps for seasonal categories as temperatures are expected to be colder than last year. If you remember, December 2015 was the warmest retail December since 1960. Apparel stores should see a positive impact of $275 million while home centers will see a negative impact of $876 million. In regard to various categories, here are Weather-Driven Demand insights for December 2016:

+33% WDD for Snow Removal

+20% WDD for Firewood

+9% WDD for Hats & Gloves

+5% WDD for Automotive Batteries

As you can see, seasonal categories are expected to see stronger sales driven by colder temperatures in the East. However, the weather impact for specific sectors and categories in December will depend on the region and week. It is best to speak with your Planalytics representative about weather-driven demand insights specific to your business.

Overall, sales growth is expected this holiday shopping season as temperatures normalize in much of the country that saw extreme warmth last year. Understanding weather’s impact and how it affects your business is the first step to managing its volatility.

 

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Weather-Adjusted Sales for July

July was the warmest month on record in the world. In the United States, this meant weather’s impact on sales was large. How did weather impact July sales in several key retail industries? We have created the following infographic based off our weather-driven demand analytics to provide you with additional information on the retail environment in July.

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Warm June Boosts Sales of Seasonal Goods and Increases Participation in Outdoor Activities

June is the first month of the summer, and apparel retailers, hardware stores, restaurants, golf courses, and many other businesses hope for favorable weather to generate big sales. In addition, Father’s Day sales, which reached $14.3 billion this year according to the NRF, are also impacted by the weather. So what did the weather look like in June for the various regions of the country, and what did this mean for apparel retailers, hardware stores, and other businesses looking for big sales to carry over into the rest of summer? Here are several points of note that were published in our June WeatherCall report. You can download the complete report here.

 

It Was a Hot and Dry June

 

June 2016 was one of the warmest on record. The first week of June was the warmest in the United States in more than 55 years boosted by near-record highs in New England and the Pacific. This carried over into the second week of June where St. Louis experienced its warmest temperatures for the week since before 1960. The West North Central Region also trended warmest since 1987. The East South Central region recorded a top 3 warmest second week in June in over 55 years.

 

The third week of June nationally was the second warmest in over 55 years. This was driven by near-record highs in the Mountain and Pacific regions. Finally, the fourth and final week of July was the warmest nationally in three years. LA experienced its warmest temperatures for the week since 1976.  There were a few regions that did experience cooler overall temperatures than in years’ past, but, as a whole, June was very warm when compared to prior years.

 

It was also relatively dry in much of the United States. New England had its driest June since 2007. The East South Central Region was its driest since 2011. The Mid-Atlantic, East North Central, and Mountain regions experienced their lowest precipitation levels since 2012. Major cities in these regions, including New York City, Boston, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Buffalo all had drier than normal conditions throughout the month of June. Overall, rainfall was the least since 2012.

 

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The weather left no doubt in the minds of consumers about the arrival of summer. They responded in kind by purchasing a variety of seasonal goods. Air conditioner weather driven demand (WDD) was up 33%. Sun care products were up 9%. Shorts were up 5%. In addition, retail traffic was up in several segments, including restaurants, sporting goods, home centers, and more. Not surprisingly, the indoor entertainment industry experienced less foot traffic than in year’s past.

 

Overall, Planalytics’ weather-driven demand analytics calculated a significant weather impact on sales in June 2016 alone compared to the same period last year:

  • Apparel Chains: $249,000,000
  • Hardware & DIY: $65,000,000
  • Restaurants: $554,000,000

 

June 2016 Was a Warm One. That Doesn’t Mean June 2017 Will Be Warm as Well

 

June 2016 saw mostly favorable weather, which helped many businesses see increased sales from consumers taking advantage of the favorable conditions. However, June 2017 could be a completely different story. Weather only repeats itself about 15-20% of the time. Rather than wait and see what happens, businesses do have the opportunity to invest in weather risk management, which can help minimize adverse effects from the weather and maximize on weather-related opportunities. Contact us today to speak with a Planalytics representative and learn more about the benefits of using our weather analytics services.

 

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Memorial Day Outlook: Could Warmer Weather Mean a Big Memorial Day Weekend for Sales?

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Get your sandals and sunblock out of hiding. Memorial Day is only a few days away, which means summer is finally here (unofficially). The beginning of the summer season is an important time for many businesses selling seasonal merchandise, and retailers should see an increase in sales as families and friends gather together for barbeques, block parties, and other Memorial Day events.

Discover how weather will impact businesses throughout Memorial Day weekend in Planalytics’ outlook below.

Warmer Temperatures in the East, Plains, Upper Midwest, and Mississippi Valley

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Last week, the Eastern part of the United States experienced cooler than normal temperatures. This week, some areas will see temperatures fifteen degrees warmer than the previous week, which could lead to increased sales for seasonal goods like grills, patio furniture, summer apparel. The West will be the opposite as temperatures will trend cooler than recent days and last year.

Memorial Day Weekend itself will be warm for many parts of the United States, including the West Coast, which could be potentially good news for businesses. Beach towns and traditional summer tourist spots should not be affected adversely, and businesses that offer outdoor activities or seasonal goods should see increased demand.

However, there is the possibility of rain for some parts of the United States over the weekend too.  The Northern part of the United States will be most impacted, but some parts of the South may see some rain too. Businesses should plan accordingly depending on their regional forecast.

Memorial Day and Beyond

Warmer weather will increase demand for many industries, including apparel, hospitality, recreation, restaurants, and more as more people get out and take summer vacations. At the same time, it is also severe weather season, and affected regions may experience torrential thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes, and more. Therefore, clients should stay up to date with Planalytics’ Severe Weather Alerts and WeatherVue reports.

Planalytics offers in-depth weather analytics to measure how the weather impacts sales. Contact us today to learn more about our services and past success. Enjoy your holiday weekend and, as always, we remember, thank, and salute all who gave the ultimate sacrifice while serving.

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How Did Weather Affect Mother’s Day Sales in Your Area? A Weekend Review

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Mothers across the country were spoiled with gifts this past weekend including flowers clothing, and brunches and dinners. According to a press release submitted by the National Retail Federation, U.S. consumers were expected to spend $172.22 on average this Mother’s Day, which is only slightly less than last year’s record high of $172.63.

In total, retail experts estimated consumers to spend more than $21.4 billion over the weekend. It was projected that $4.2 billion would be spent on jewelry, $4.1 billion on special outings, $2.4 billion on flowers, $2.2 billion on gift cards, $1.9 billion on clothing, $1.9 billion on electronics, and $1.6 billion at the spa. An additional $792 million would be spent on greeting cards.

How did the weather over Mother’s Day weekend impact consumer demand?

 

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This past Mother’s Day weekend, temperatures were spring-like in the Pacific Northwest and Rockies through the Northern Plans into Central Canada. This differed from regions east of the Mississippi where temperatures trended cooler than last year. However, all was not lost. Warmer conditions did move into eastern regions on Sunday just in time to celebrate the big day with Mom. The Southeast and Gulf Coast experienced drier than normal conditions, which was favorable for traffic into stores and restaurants.

Overall, Mother’s Day in the U.S was the coolest and driest since 2013. In Canada, Mother’s Day trended its coolest since 2011 and wettest since 2013.

Although sales have not been reported yet for Mother’s Day Weekend, they were certainly impacted by these weather conditions.

Retailers, restaurants, spas, and other business establishments can expect overall consumer activity to be affected by the weather outside. Warm, cold, wet, or dry conditions greatly impact consumers depending on their location, time of year, recent weather experience, and product or service. Planalytics works with businesses across the country to develop a weather risk management plan to mitigate the effects of day-to-day weather variances on sales and take advantage of weather-related business opportunities.

The weather is always changing. Get your business ready today with weather analytics from Planalytics.

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Understanding Weather Volatility and How Planalytics Can Help

If you’re looking at last year’s weather data to make decisions this year, you might find yourself in trouble. Weather only repeats itself a small percentage of the time, so you’ll need to make smarter business decisions through in-depth weather analytics. Learn more about Planalytics’ weather analytics services to manage weather volatility below:

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