WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending September 26, 2015)
Endless Summer! Despite Fall’s Arrival, Temperatures in the U.S. Trended the Warmest for Week 4 of September Since 2010; Canada Cooler Than LY. Dry Conditions Supported Outdoor Activities.
Weekend Review: Pope Francis was greeted with fall-like conditions as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic trended cooler than normal, spurring demand for warm beverages and cold weather apparel. Cooler than normal conditions were also felt across the Pacific Northwest. Above average warmth continued in the Plains and Inter-Mountain West, keeping demand soft for fall consumables, while the Southeast saw a continuation of heavy rain and severe storms.
Ain’t No Fall Here. While autumn officially began on Wednesday, September 23rd, warm temperatures continued to dominate as the U.S. had its warmest 4th week of September since 2010. The Mountain region trended warmest in 55+ years. The West North Central region was warmest since 2005, Pacific region since 2009, West South Central & East South Central since 2010. Fall demand suffered in Las Vegas which had its warmest September week 4 in over 55 years. Los Angeles and San Diego were both warmest since 1984. Salt Lake City had its warmest 4th week of September since 2001, San Antonio and Dallas since 2005, and Minneapolis since 2008. Many major cities along the East Coast also experienced warm conditions, with NYC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia all trending warmest since 2010, promoting outdoor activities.
A Glimpse of Fall in New England. New England was the only region to experience temperatures cooler than LY (although near normal), during the 4th week of September, helping to spur demand for fall apparel. Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Portland OR, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Francisco were the only major cities to trend cooler than LY, all of which were coolest since 2013.
Precipitation Limited for Most. Nationally, the U.S. had its driest 4th week of September since 2004. The New England region had its least rainfall for week 4 of September in 55+ years. The Mid-Atlantic and East North Central regions each had their second driest September week 4 in 55+ years. Conversely, the West North Central had its wettest 4th week of September since 2010 and the South Atlantic region since 2011. Miami trended wettest since 2007, Atlanta since 2009, and Minneapolis since 2010.
Last week last year, the U.S. was the 4th warmest in 50 years and warmest since 2010. It was also the driest for the week in 10 years. Canada was warmest for September week 4 since 1967 and had below normal rainfall.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending September 26, 2015)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending September 26, 2015)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.
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