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 WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending July 30, 2016)

Still Sizzling! End of Summer Purchasing Soared as the U.S. Closed July Warmest in 55+ Years. Cooler in Central Areas. Wetter Than Normal Conditions Limited Outdoor Activities.

Weekend Review: Above normal warmth stuck around in the West, while cooler than normal and last year conditions spread across the Upper Midwest and Mississippi River Valley. Showers and thunderstorms emerged in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, leading to historic flooding in the Baltimore metro area. The Central Plains also received rainfall, while monsoonal showers persisted in the Desert Southwest. Canada saw above normal and last year temperatures in the Prairies with cooler conditions felt throughout the Maritimes.

Record Heat. Nationally, it was the warmest end to July in over 55 years, driven by the eastern seaboard and the West. The South Atlantic region was warmest in 55+ years. The New England region was warmest since 1995 and the Mid-Atlantic region since 2002. The Mountain region had its 2nd warmest July week 4 in 55+ years, warmest since 2006, and the Pacific region experienced its 3rd warmest in 55+ years. Las Vegas and Charlotte were both warmest in over 55 years. Boston and Salt Lake City were warmest since 1994, New York City, Philadelphia, and Cleveland since 2002, and Los Angeles and Sacramento since 2006.

A Little Cooler in the Middle. The central U.S. had some relief from the heat as the East South Central, West South Central, and West North Central regions all trended coolest in 2 years. Miami was coolest since 2008, San Antonio since 2010.

Bring On The Rain. Nationally, the U.S. was wetter than normal, experiencing its most rainfall to end July in 2 years. The East South Central region was wettest since 2009 and East North Central region since 2011. Cincinnati received its most rainfall since 1978, Memphis since 1996, Baltimore since 2004, and Oklahoma City and Little Rock since 2009. Conversely, Charlotte had its driest end to July since 2002; Boston and Miami since 2010. Over 1,000 severe weather reports came in throughout the week, most stemming from high winds and hail across the Plains, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Canadian Heat. Canada had its warmest final week of July since 2012, ranking as the 7th warmest in the last 55+ years. Halifax ended the month with its warmest week in over 55 years and Toronto was warmest since 2007. The country was wetter than last year although drier than normal. Calgary was wettest since 1961 and Edmonton since 2001. Conversely, Winnipeg was driest since 2011, Ottawa and Montreal since 2012, and Quebec City since 2013.

For reference, last year , the U.S. had its warmest final week of July since 2012, with warmth focused in the East. It was the driest end to July since 2012, with rainfall also trending less than normal. Canada had its warmest final week of July since 2012. Rainfall was below normal and the least since 2010.

Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending July 30, 2016)

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WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending July 30, 2016)

Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”).  It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection.  It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.)  WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service. 

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