Business Weather Wrap-Up



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 WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending December 19, 2015)

Mother Nature Went to the Dark Side! The Warmest Week 3 of December Since 2006 in North America Limited Winter Demand. Cold and Snow in the West Drove Seasonal Purchasing.

Weekend Review: The final weekend before Christmas brought an early present to retailers looking to move seasonal goods. For the first time in a few weeks, the eastern U.S. experienced seasonal temperatures, which was a 20-25°F drop from the temperatures felt earlier in the week. Lake effect snow fell across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, while the West Coast continued to trend colder than both LY and normal. Warmer than normal temperatures moved across the Plains and Intermountain West. Dry conditions in the East supported store traffic, while rain continued to dampen outdoor activities in the Pacific Northwest.

Hotter Than a Light Saber. Above normal temperatures continued across the eastern U.S., resulting in the warmest 3rd week of December since 2006. The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions had their warmest December week 3 in over 55 years. The South Atlantic region had its warmest December week 3 since 1990; East North Central region since 2006. Major markets such as Baltimore, Boston, Detroit, Miami, New York City, and Philadelphia all trended warmest in 55+ years. Charlotte, Raleigh, and Richmond were all warmest since 1971; Orlando and Tampa since 2000, challenging seasonal product sales.

Luke to the West for Seasonal Opportunity. Colder temperatures vs. LY were focused in the West. The Mountain region had its coldest 3rd week of December since 2008, the West South Central since 2010, and the Pacific region since 2012, supporting seasonal purchasing. Phoenix had its coldest December week 3 since 1992, Denver since 2008, and San Antonio since 2010.

The Storm Force Awakened! The U.S. had its wettest 3rd week of December since 1983, with all regions trending wetter than LY. The West North Central region had its wettest December week 3 in 55+ years; the Pacific region since 2006. Minneapolis was wettest in over 55 years from a combination of rain and snow. Portland, OR was wettest since 1995. Nationally, snowfall trended above LY, but below normal. The Mountain region had its snowiest 3rd week of December since 2008. Salt Lake City had its most December week 3 snowfall since 1970; Denver since 1989. Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, and Pittsburgh all received snowfall during the week, although amounts remained significantly below normal.

Last year, the U.S. had its warmest 3rd week of December since 2006. Rainfall was below normal. Snowfall was below normal and the least since 2011. Canada had its warmest 3rd week of December since 2011, driest since 2009, and below normal snowfall.

Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending December 19, 2015)



WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending December 19, 2015)

Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”).  It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection.  It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.)  WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service. 


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