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 WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending October 8, 2016)

Hurricane Matthew Hammered the Southeast Driving the Wettest Start to October Since 2009. The East was Warm While the West Stayed Cool. Canada Warmest and Wettest Since 2011.

Hurricane Matthew Recap. Hurricane Matthew impacted the Southeast throughout the week driving pre-storm purchasing in advance of its arrival. Late week, the storm moved up the South Atlantic coastline impacting Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Matthew brought hurricane force wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and storm surge to the Southeast causing significant flooding and structural damage resulting in over 2 million power outages and over 15 fatalities. Matthew made landfall near Charleston, SC over the weekend. Conditions began to improve by Sunday as Matthew headed further east, allowing the arduous clean up process to begin. Foot traffic into home centers was heavy before and after the storm, while mall traffic declined.

Weekend Review: Outside of Matthew’s impact, the East Coast and the Southwest experienced warmer than normal temperatures to start the weekend. Rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region cleared by Sunday evening. Cool air filtered into the Plains, Great Lakes, and eventually the East Coast by Sunday. Showers and high elevation snow fell in the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies.

Eastern Warmth. October kicked off with warmer than LY temperatures for most in the East. The East South Central region was warmest since 1997; the New England, Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, and East North Central regions since 2005. Both Atlanta and New Orleans experienced their warmest start to October in 55+ years. Nashville and Memphis were warmest since 1997.

Cool Wind in the West. The western half of the U.S. experienced cooler temperatures to LY, boosting demand for hot coffee and sweaters. Salt Lake City was coolest since 2009; Denver and Sacramento since 2012.

Stormy Weather. Nationally, this was the wettest start to October since 2009. In addition to the heavy rain and flooding brought to the Southeast by Hurricane Matthew, the nation’s heartland experienced severe weather with 21 confirmed tornadoes as well as high wind and hail. The South Atlantic region was wettest in 55+ years; the West North Central region since 2009.

It Wasn’t All Doom and Gloom. While the Southeast staggered under heavy rain, the New England and Middle Atlantic regions were driest since 2008. Both Boston and Buffalo were driest since 2008; Philadelphia and Pittsburgh since 2012. The drier conditions supported outdoor activities and boosted traffic into restaurants.

O, Canada! Canada was warmest as well as wettest since 2011. Warm temperatures were focused in the East while cooler conditions to LY were prevalent in the West. Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Ottawa were all warmest since 2005. Edmonton and Calgary were coolest since 2009. Vancouver was wettest since 2004, Halifax since 2011, and Edmonton since 2012.

For reference, last year , the U.S. had its warmest start to October since 2006. It was the driest Week 1 of October since 2012. Canada started October coolest since 2012 but warmer than normal. Rainfall was below normal.

Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending October 8, 2016)

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WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending October 8, 2016)

Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”).  It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection.  It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.)  WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service. 

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