WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending August 27, 2016)
The Great Divide! A Warm East Spurred Summer Clearance While a Cool West Drove Early Fall Purchasing. A Wet Week Across the Central U.S. Along With Increased Tropical Activity.
Weekend Review: The heat was on across the East Coast as above normal temperatures drove heat index readings into the 90s for most. While dry weather certainly benefitted foot traffic, demand for back-to-school and fall purchases was depressed. Elsewhere, temperatures were generally more seasonal. Heavy rain was focused in south Florida as Tropical Depression 9 formed near the Florida Keys. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms were the rule across Texas, the Plains, and Midwest, along with monsoon showers in the Southwest. Canada saw a cooler West, warmer East, with showers in the Prairies.
Warmth in the East. The final week of August trended warmer than both LY and normal. The eastern half of the U.S. experienced end of summer warmth as the New England region was warmest since 1973 and the South Atlantic region since 1998. Miami and Tampa both had their warmest end to August in 55+ years, Charlotte since 1987, Boston since 1993, and NYC since 1998.
Western Cooldown. The western half of the U.S. enjoyed relief from the heat, which helped to put consumers in the autumn mindset. Sacramento was coolest since 1982, Phoenix since 2008, San Diego since 2010, and Los Angeles since 2011. Across Texas, Houston was coolest since 2001, Dallas since 2004, and San Antonio since 2007.
Rainy Daze. The wettest close to August in 4 years brought rain across much of the U.S. Strongest anomalies were focused in central regions where the East North Central region was wettest since 2004 and the East South Central region since 2008. Kansas City recorded its wettest final week of August in more than 55 years. Memphis was wettest since 1974, Nashville since 1992, San Antonio since 2001, and Indianapolis since 2004. Dallas and Houston were both wettest since 2007. Oklahoma City and Chicago were both wettest since 2009. There were over 300 severe weather reports during the week. Most notable was a tornado outbreak on Wednesday of over 30 tornadoes across northern Indiana and Ohio.
The Tropics Woke Up! Tropical Storms 8 and 9 formed in the Atlantic threatening Florida, the Gulf Coast, and Southeast. Pre-storm demand for emergency items increased over the weekend. Gaston strengthened into a hurricane, but remained at sea.
O Canada! Nationally, Canada had its warmest final week of August in 3 years. Quebec City and Montreal were both warmest since 1999. Conversely, Edmonton had its coolest close to August since 2010. The country was wetter than both LY and normal, with Edmonton trending wettest since 1980, Calgary since 2008, and Quebec City since 2011.
For reference, last year , the U.S. experienced its coolest end to August since 2009, driven by the eastern half of the country. It was the driest 4th week of August since 2000. Canada ended August warmer and wetter than normal.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending August 27, 2016)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending August 27, 2016)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.