WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending August 13, 2016)
Extreme Heat in the East Drove Warmest 2nd Week of August Since 2010 in the U.S., Canada Since 2005. Gold Medal Weather for the West! Heavy Rain Led to Flooding Along the Gulf.
Weekend Review: Above normal and last year warmth continued in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and southeast Canada, with excessive heat warnings issued for many along the East Coast. Cooler than normal and last year temperatures moved into the Upper Midwest, Central Plains, and the Four Corners states, while the West Coast experienced above normal warmth. The North Central region, Intermountain West, and West Coast remained dry. Torrential rain along the Gulf Coast led to over 30 inches of rain in Louisiana and Mississippi, resulting in record flooding and prompting state of emergency declarations.
A Silver Medal for the East. Nationally, it was the warmest 2nd week of August since 2010 and 2nd warmest in 55+ years, driven by warmth across the eastern half of the U.S. The Mid-Atlantic region trended warmest since 2002, the New England region since 2005, the East North Central and East South Central regions since 2010, and South Atlantic and West South Central regions since 2011. Cleveland and Buffalo had their warmest 2nd week of August in over 55 years. New York City, Pittsburgh, and Detroit were all warmest since 1988, helping retailers move through summer merchandise.
The West Landed on Top of the Podium. The Mountain region had its coolest 2nd week of August since 2010 and the Pacific region since 2011. Seattle and Portland, OR were coolest since 2011, San Francisco since 2012. Elsewhere, Miami was coolest since 1994 and Tampa since 2008, supporting demand for back-to-school and fall transitional merchandise.
All-Around Wetness. Nationally, the U.S. was wetter than both last year and normal. The West South Central region had its wettest 2nd week of August since 2008 and the West North Central region since 2010. New Orleans was wettest for the week since 1998, Atlanta since 2008, Portland, OR since 2009, Minneapolis since 2010, and Chicago since 2011, dampening store traffic. Additionally, there were over 500 severe weather reports last week. The majority of reports came from high winds in the Central Plains and Northeast.
Canada Can Take the Heat. Nationally, Canada had its warmest 2nd week of August since 2005. Toronto was warmest since 2002, Ottawa since 2005, and Montreal since 2009, helping to clear summer merchandise. Conversely, Vancouver had its coolest August week 2 since 2011 and Calgary since 2012. Canada was driest for the week since 2013. Halifax had its driest 2nd week of August since 2002 while Winnipeg trended wettest since 2012.
For reference, last year ,the U.S. had its warmest 2nd week of August since 2010 and its driest since 2007. Canada was also the warmest since 2010 with above normal rainfall.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending August 13, 2016)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending August 13, 2016)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.