WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending July 16, 2016)
Heat Wave! Hottest Temperatures of the Year in the East Supported Consumer Purchasing. Rainfall and Severe Weather Impacted the Plains. Canada Warm East, Cooler West.
Weekend Review: The late week heat wave along much of the East Coast gave way to more seasonal temperatures by the end of the weekend. The Deep South and Southeast were also near normal. Cooler than normal conditions persisted in the northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and southeast Canada. Showers and thunderstorms were focused in the Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions. Warmer than normal and LY conditions were found in the Southwest, which was also dry.
The Heat of the Moment. Summer products were in high demand in the South Atlantic region which had its warmest week 2 of July since 2010. The West South Central region was warmest since 2011. The Mid-Atlantic, New England, and East North Central regions were all warmest since 2013. Orlando was warmest in over 55 years, Houston since 1980, and Atlanta since 2002. A heat wave overtook NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore which were all warmest since 2013 and well above normal.
Summertime Blues. The Pacific region had its coolest week 2 of July since 2011. Portland, OR was coolest since 2011, Seattle and San Diego since 2012. Cooler temperatures to last year were also focused in the East South Central and West North Central regions. Salt Lake City was coolest since 1993. Cooler temperatures limited demand for summer apparel and consumables.
Summer Rain. Rainfall was slightly above last year and near normal. The West North Central region was wettest since 1993. Little Rock was wettest in over 55 years, St. Louis since 2009, and Kansas City since 2010. Conversely, the Mountain region was driest since 2010 and the Mid-Atlantic region since 2011. Orlando was driest since 1996, Atlanta since 2002, Chicago since 2005, Houston since 2008, and Buffalo since 2011.
Summer Breeze. There were over 1,500 severe weather reports last week, with over 1,200 of the reports coming from high winds. The winds were concentrated in the Northern Plains, Southern Plains, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast regions.
Canadian Divide. Week 2 of July was warmer than last year although near normal with warmth focused in the East and cooler temperatures in the West. Toronto and Montreal were warmest since 2013 and warmer than normal. Calgary was coolest since 2008. Nationally, rainfall was above normal and the most since 2013. Calgary had its wettest week 2 of July in over 55 years and Vancouver was wettest since 2011, limiting store traffic.
For reference, last year , the U.S. was warmer than normal driven by extreme heat in the Southeast. It was the driest 2nd week of July since 2011, although rainfall totals were near normal. Canada had its coolest 2nd week of July since 2009 with above normal rainfall.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending July 16, 2016)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending July 16, 2016)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.