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 WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending July 2, 2016)

Hot Fun in the Summertime! June Ended Warmer Than LY and Normal, Particularly in the East. Seasonal Demand Sparkled in the Lead-Up to Canada Day and the July 4th Weekend.

Holiday Weekend Review: Above normal temperatures were focused across much of the South with areas such as the Southeast, Lower MS Valley, and Southern Plains standing out the most. Cooler than normal temperatures were centered in the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Midwest, Central Plains, and Four Corners region. Wet conditions were found in the Southeast, Mid-South, Central Plains and Four Corners region with flash flooding in parts of Kansas, Missouri, and central Illinois. Drier than normal conditions were the rule along the West Coast, Great Lakes, and Deep South. Severe weather occurred in the Northeast on Friday before a drier and pleasant trend Saturday and Sunday. Independence Day (July 4th) was the warmest in 3 years. Precipitation was below last year, but wetter than normal with the West South Central region wettest since 2006.

Hot Diggity! The final week of June ended warmer than normal and the warmest since 2013, driven by markets from the Central Plains to the East Coast. The East South Central and West South Central regions were warmest since 2012. New Orleans was warmest since 2009, Houston since 2011. Charlotte, Atlanta, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Little Rock, Kansas City, Memphis, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio were all warmest since 2012, driving demand for summer apparel and consumables.

Grillin’ & Chillin’. Markets in the Pacific and Mountain regions were cooler than last year, although still warmer than normal. Denver had its coolest end to June since 2009 and San Francisco was coolest since 2011.

Sprinklers & Sparklers. While rainfall was below LY, it was still above normal. The West North Central region had its wettest end to June since 1993. Las Vegas and Kansas City had their wettest June week 5 in over 55 years; Denver since 2001. Conversely, the East North Central region had its driest end to June since 2004. Cincinnati was driest since 2002; Cleveland since 2007.

Storm Parade. There were over 700 severe weather reports last week, including over 175 instances of hail. Most took place in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Central Plains.

Canada’s Birthday was Warm in the East, Cool in the West. Canada Day was warmer than LY and normal, particularly in eastern markets. Nationally, rainfall was above normal, although most major markets were dry, supporting outdoor activities. For the week as a whole, Canada was warmer than LY and normal. Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa, and Halifax were all warmest since 2014, and warmer than normal. Rainfall was also above normal, and the most to end June since 2009.

For reference, last year , the U.S. had its coolest end to June since 2011 although temperatures were above normal. July 4th was warmer than the prior year, although near normal. Canada had its coolest end to June since 2011 and was wettest since 2009.

Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending July 2, 2016)

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WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending July 2, 2016)

Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”).  It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection.  It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.)  WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service. 

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