WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending June 4, 2016)
The Warmest Start to June in the U.S. in 55+ Years Drove Seasonal Demand East and West. Cooler Temps Reigned in the Plains. Heavy Rain Exacerbated Flooding Conditions in Texas.
Weekend Review: It was a wet start to the weekend with showers and thunderstorms spreading from the Dakotas down through Texas and east to the Atlantic. The central U.S. dried out on Sunday while those on the East Coast kept their umbrellas handy. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic experienced severe storms with strong winds on Sunday. The western half of the U.S. enjoyed sunny skies and summer-like temperatures. Phoenix set a record of 115ºF and Portland, OR hit 100ºF. Western Canada also saw a warm-up while eastern Canada trended slightly cooler and experienced scattered showers. Tropical Storm Colin formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Warm, Warmer, Warmest. Nationally, June kicked off with its warmest week 1 in over 55 years, driven in part by the Pacific region which was warmest since 1996. New Englanders partied like it was 1999, as the region enjoyed its warmest start to June in 17 years. Pittsburgh had its warmest June week 1 in 55+ years. Buffalo, Detroit, and Chicago were all warmest since 2006. On the opposite side of the country, Sacramento was warmest since 1996 and Portland, OR since 2003, driving seasonal demand.
Texas Troubles. The West South Central region had its wettest start to June in over 55 years. Dallas was wettest since 1981 and San Antonio since 1986, driving need-based purchases as the area continued to add to its historic flooding. In addition to the wet conditions, the West South Central region also trended coolest for the first week of June since 1997. Houston had its coolest June week 1 since 1984, San Antonio since 1987, and Dallas since 1992.
Stormy Skies. While Texas stole the headlines, additional areas of the U.S. also saw significant rain and thunderstorms during the week. Richmond experienced its wettest start to June since 1963 and Little Rock since 1992. There were over 500 severe weather reports, and while these included 18 tornadoes, the majority of the severe reports stemmed from hail and high winds early week throughout the Central Plains and damaging winds late week across the Mid-Atlantic.
Oh Canada. Nationally, Canada had its warmest start to June since 2006 with Montreal starting June warmest in 55+ years. Rain was focused from Ontario eastward to the Maritimes. Quebec City had its most precipitation since 1972 limiting outdoor activities, while Ottawa remained drier with its least rainfall since 1997.
For reference, last year the U.S. experienced its coolest start to June since 2009. Severe weather was focused in the Rockies, Northern Plains, and Midwest. Canada had its coolest start to June since 2009. Rainfall was above normal in both the U.S. and Canada.
Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending June 4, 2016)
WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending June 4, 2016)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”). It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection. It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.) WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service.