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 WEATHER TRENDS AND HIGHLIGHTS (Week Ending January 16, 2016)

A Cold Start to the Week Gave Way to Warmer Than LY Temperatures Across the Central and Eastern U.S. An Active Precipitation Pattern Brought Rain for Some, Snow for Others.

Weekend Review: MLK weekend brought a blast of arctic air to the Northern Plains and Midwest on Saturday, which moved into the Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys on Sunday. Temperatures moderated along the East Coast on Friday and Saturday but colder conditions returned by Sunday, with light snow accumulations in the Mid-Atlantic. Severe thunderstorms moved through Florida Saturday into Sunday including two confirmed tornadoes.

Tough Comp to LY in the East. Nationally, the 2nd week of January trended warmest since 2014. Temperatures averaged slightly above last year but near normal. The South Atlantic region was warmest since 2013. The New England, Mid-Atlantic, East North Central, East South Central, and West South Central regions were warmest in two years.

Frigid Conditions in the Northern Plains. The West North Central region had its coldest 2nd week of January since 2011. Minneapolis and Chicago had their coldest January week 2 since 2009. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Kansas City were coldest since 2011. Cold temperatures supported demand for heaters, electric blankets, outerwear, and winter accessories.

Different Week, Same Story in the West. The western U.S. continued to trend colder than LY and normal; the Mountain and Pacific regions were coldest since 2013. Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Seattle were coldest since 2013. These conditions provided strong YOY opportunities for winter apparel and hot consumables.

Wet Weather for Some. Nationally, it was the wettest 2nd week of January since 2013. Rainfall was focused in the Pacific region, which was wettest since 2010. San Francisco was wettest since 2005, Portland, OR since 2006, Sacramento since 2010, and Seattle since 2011. Elsewhere, Miami had its wettest January week 2 since 1973, New York City since 1996, Tampa since 2010, and Baltimore since 2013.

Snow Way! Nationally, it was the snowiest 2nd week of January since 2012. The New England, Mid-Atlantic, and Pacific regions recorded their most snowfall since 2011, the East North Central since 2012, and the West North Central since 2014. Cincinnati recorded its most January week 2 snow since 2003, Buffalo since 2004, Pittsburgh and Detroit since 2011, Cleveland since 2012, Indianapolis and Chicago since 2014. Demand for snow shovels and ice melt was strong across these markets.

Last year, the U.S. trended coldest for the week since 2011. Snowfall was much below normal and the least for the week since 2010. Rainfall was below normal. Canada experienced its coldest 2nd week of January since 2009. Snowfall was below normal and rainfall was the least for the week since 2003.

Last Week’s Weather vs. Last Year (Week ending January 16, 2016)

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WEATHER DRIVEN-DEMAND BY PRODUCT (Week Ending January 16, 2016)

Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) is the measured impact of weather on comp sales (“lift” or “drag”).  It is a numerical representation of the consumer need for a product or service caused by perceived changes in the weather at a time/location intersection.  It does not include any factors other than weather (e.g. price, competition, etc.)  WDD is expressed as percent change from the previous year, either favorable (positive) or unfavorable (negative) for each product or service. 

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